#1 - College Part 1: COST

Sep 11

Central Questions:

How and Why has the college institution become so expensive and “out-of-control?”
Do we need to rethink how necessary college is?

Identified Patterns
- You can make the argument that there are tons of patterns, trends and shifts
  - Two clear time period patterns associated with the cost:
    - 1945-1980 & 1980-today

Demographics:

Population of Fall Enrollees by year since 1947

POPULATION INCREASES:
- From 1947 - 1970 (Baby Boomers 24 years old)
  - UP 266.98%

Recent High School Graduate enrollment has increased:
- Percentage of recent high school grads enrolling in college
  - 49.3% in 1980
  - 66.7% by 2017
    - Peaked at 69.8% in 2016

As of 2016-2017
Measured in REAL 2016-2017 DOLLARS
Weighted total of all 2 year and 4 year colleges put together
Average annual total cost of college from 1963-64 to 1982-83
- DECREASED from $9,818 to $9,584 (-2.39% REAL dollars decrease)
The last time education costs decreased year-to-year for college was from the 1979/80 school year to 1980/81 school year
- RECESSIONS HAPPENED & PRICES DIDN’T GO UP

Since 1980-1981
- The average cost has gone from $8,687 to $23,061 (a 165.4% increase in REAL dollars)
  - From 63-64 to 80, the population roughly doubled from 6 to 12
    - For context, from 80 to today, the campus population went from approximately 12 million students to 20 million students

Dr. Steven Pinker in his book “Enlightenment Now”
- The wage growth of the middle class, and, in particular, the lower half of the middle class in America and the other richest countries in the world has been the lowest of any wealth level since the 1980’s. (Page 111)
- So, to apply his theory here, while the entire point of the post WWII GI BILL college movement was built upon access to higher education across classes--we are creating extra burdens on those that concept is supposed to liberate.
  - A copy of the graph can be found HERE

Where we stand today as it relates to % Enrollment & Price

Since 2009, the real cost of education went from $19,321 in 2008-09 to $23,091 in 2016-17 (19.51% REAL dollars increase)
- That’s right after the Great Recession
  - State funding dried up so colleges bumped up tuition

Supply of colleges peaked at 4,726 in 2012-13 (acc. To NCES)

3,231 total 4 and 2 year colleges in 1980-81 vs 4,360 in 2016-2017 (Degree-Granting, Title IV colleges, meaning they accept and process federal aid)
- Increase of 34.94%
  - More than enough real estate supply to at least almost keep up with the 63% demand growth over the 1980 - 2017 time period (based on the population numbers already mentioned earlier)